Alianza Valledupar 0–1 Junior: Result & Stats

Alianza Valledupar

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Junior

E. Herrera 49' (pen)

10/12/2025

Primera A · Clausura - 15Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Alianza Valledupar45%

×Draw26%

Junior29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza ValleduparExpected goals in this matchJunior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.12

Alianza Valledupar

1.47

Junior

1.12

Alianza Valledupar creates 31% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

1.31

creates per match

1.01

1.23

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.31

Junior

1.01

allows per match

Alianza Valledupar

1.23

Junior

1.62

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Alianza Valledupar-0.40scores less

Junior+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Valledupar ↓

Junior →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Alianza Valledupar or draw

71%

Alianza Valledupar or Junior

74%

Draw or Junior

55%

Winning margin

Alianza Valledupar wins by 2+

22%

Junior wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Alianza Valledupar 1+ goals

77%

Alianza Valledupar 2+ goals

43%

Alianza Valledupar 3+ goals

18%

Junior 1+ goals

67%

Junior 2+ goals

31%

Junior 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alianza Valledupar (draw refunded)

61%

Junior (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Valledupar at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.23 · 11 matches

Junior away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.62 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Valledupar attack 1.31 + Junior defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.47

Junior attack 1.01 + Alianza Valledupar defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alianza Valledupar scores more

45%

level

26%

Junior scores more

29%

Alianza Valledupar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alianza Valledupar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

E. Herrera

Junior · D

7.5

Match Events

4'

Jair Castillo

45+8'

Edwin Torres

45+1'

Kalazan Suárez

45+7'

Carlos GonzalezPenalty cancelled

45+7'

46'

46'

47'

49'

E. HerreraPenalty

50'

Pedro Franco

54'

Jhonier Guerrero

62'

J. Salazar← J. Guerrero

64'

J. Munoz← J. Castillo

65'

L. Saldana← K. Suarez

73'

Edwin Herrera

75'

S. A. Aponza Cantonil← E. Torres

80'

T. Gutierrez← J. Rivas

88'

C. Esparragoza← G. Paiva

90+4'

Didier Moreno

90+2'

F. Pardo← R. Manjarres

90+3'

M. Gil← J. Munoz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaJunior

Overview

60%Possession40%

15Total Shots6

6Corners0

13Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots6

3On Target2

9Off Target4

3Blocked0

4Inside Box5

11Outside Box1

Passing

60%Possession40%

408Total Passes270

333Accurate Passes196

82%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls16

5Yellow Cards4