Junior Managua 1–1 Walter Ferretti: Result & Stats

Junior Managua

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Walter Ferretti

B. Montiel 44'

S. Nápoles 47'

4/10/2021

Primera Division · Clausura - 13Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Junior Managua33%

×Draw28%

Walter Ferretti40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Junior ManaguaExpected goals in this matchWalter Ferretti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.26

Junior Managua

1.12

Walter Ferretti

1.26

Walter Ferretti creates 13% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 138 away

0.89

creates per match

1.02

1.50

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Junior Managua

0.89

Walter Ferretti

1.02

allows per match

Junior Managua

1.50

Walter Ferretti

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Junior Managua+0.00on par

Walter Ferretti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior Managua ↓

Walter Ferretti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Junior Managua or draw

60%

Junior Managua or Walter Ferretti

72%

Draw or Walter Ferretti

67%

Winning margin

Junior Managua wins by 2+

13%

Walter Ferretti wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Junior Managua 1+ goals

67%

Junior Managua 2+ goals

31%

Junior Managua 3+ goals

10%

Walter Ferretti 1+ goals

72%

Walter Ferretti 2+ goals

36%

Walter Ferretti 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Junior Managua (draw refunded)

45%

Walter Ferretti (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior Managua at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Walter Ferretti away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.35 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior Managua attack 0.89 + Walter Ferretti defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.12

Walter Ferretti attack 1.02 + Junior Managua defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Junior Managua scores more

33%

level

28%

Walter Ferretti scores more

40%

Walter Ferretti at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Walter Ferretti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

B. Montiel

46'

A. Somarriba← O. Mendoza

47'

S. Nápoles

56'

Á. Hernández← O. Soto

64'

E. Mercado← C. Aragón

64'

D. Forbes← F. Villalpando

70'

J. Castellón← R. Huete

86'

J. González← O. Reyes

Junior

Walter

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Ruíz

56'▲Á. Hernández←▼O. Soto

64'▲E. Mercado←▼C. Aragón

86'▲J. González←▼O. Reyes

Junior Managua substitutes

HernándezMercadoGonzálezErringtonNarvaezEspinozaGaitán

Manager: H. Urbina

46'▲A. Somarriba←▼O. Mendoza

64'▲D. Forbes←▼F. Villalpando

70'▲J. Castellón←▼R. Huete

Walter Ferretti substitutes

SomarribaForbesCastellónEspinozaNiñoTreminioMiranda

Primera Division: Junior Managua 1–1 Walter Ferretti

Junior Managua and Walter Ferretti drew 1-1 in Primera Division on April 10, 2021.

Goals: B. Montiel (44'), S. Nápoles (47').

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Fútbol in Managua.

Junior Managua vs Walter Ferretti — Primera Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera Division: Junior Managua 1–1 Walter Ferretti