Junior Managua 1–3 Managua: Result & Stats

Junior Managua

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Managua

C. Aragón 71'

Márcio Silveira 64'

N. Peralta 56'

Lucas dos Santos 5'

1/24/2021

Primera Division · Clausura - 1Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Junior Managua28%

×Draw27%

Managua45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Junior ManaguaExpected goals in this matchManagua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.39

Junior Managua

1.03

Managua

1.39

Managua creates 35% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 136 away

0.89

creates per match

1.28

1.50

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Junior Managua

0.89

Managua

1.28

allows per match

Junior Managua

1.50

Managua

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Junior Managua+0.00on par

Managua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junior Managua ↓

Managua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Junior Managua or draw

55%

Junior Managua or Managua

73%

Draw or Managua

72%

Winning margin

Junior Managua wins by 2+

10%

Managua wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Junior Managua 1+ goals

64%

Junior Managua 2+ goals

28%

Junior Managua 3+ goals

9%

Managua 1+ goals

75%

Managua 2+ goals

40%

Managua 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Junior Managua (draw refunded)

38%

Managua (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junior Managua at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Managua away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.18 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junior Managua attack 0.89 + Managua defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.03

Managua attack 1.28 + Junior Managua defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Junior Managua scores more

28%

level

27%

Managua scores more

45%

Managua at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Managua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Lucas dos Santos

46'

P. Gallego← M. Guerrero

56'

L. Gaitán← E. Mercado

56'

N. Peralta

64'

Márcio Silveira

69'

L. Gutiérrez← E. Narvaez

69'

D. Zúñiga← A. Báez

71'

C. Aragón

74'

A. Bermúdez← Á. Hernández

82'

U. Pozo← N. Peralta

Junior

Managua

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: T. Acevedo

56'▲L. Gaitán←▼E. Mercado

69'▲L. Gutiérrez←▼E. Narvaez

74'▲A. Bermúdez←▼Á. Hernández

Junior Managua substitutes

GaitánGutiérrezBermúdezRodríguezRosalesEspinozaWilson

Manager: E. Aburto

46'▲P. Gallego←▼M. Guerrero

69'▲D. Zúñiga←▼A. Báez

82'▲U. Pozo←▼N. Peralta

Managua substitutes

GallegoZúñigaPozoPiresCuarezmaPalaciosPérez