Jungnang Chorus Mustang 4–2 Seosan Pioneer

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

FT

4 – 2

Seosan Pioneer

6/6/2026

K4 League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Jungnang Chorus Mustang51%

×Draw23%

Seosan Pioneer26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jungnang Chorus MustangExpected goals in this matchSeosan Pioneer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.26

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.86

Seosan Pioneer

1.26

Jungnang Chorus Mustang creates 48% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.33

creates per match

1.30

1.22

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.33

Seosan Pioneer

1.30

allows per match

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.22

Seosan Pioneer

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jungnang Chorus Mustang+0.00on par

Seosan Pioneer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jungnang Chorus Mustang ↓

Seosan Pioneer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Jungnang Chorus Mustang or draw

74%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang or Seosan Pioneer

77%

Draw or Seosan Pioneer

49%

Winning margin

Jungnang Chorus Mustang wins by 2+

29%

Seosan Pioneer wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1+ goals

84%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 2+ goals

55%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 3+ goals

28%

Seosan Pioneer 1+ goals

72%

Seosan Pioneer 2+ goals

36%

Seosan Pioneer 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Jungnang Chorus Mustang (draw refunded)

66%

Seosan Pioneer (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jungnang Chorus Mustang at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Seosan Pioneer away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jungnang Chorus Mustang attack 1.33 + Seosan Pioneer defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.86

Seosan Pioneer attack 1.30 + Jungnang Chorus Mustang defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jungnang Chorus Mustang scores more

51%

level

23%

Seosan Pioneer scores more

26%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jungnang Chorus Mustang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff