Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1–0 Pyeongtaek Citizen

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

FT

1 – 0

Pyeongtaek Citizen

3/21/2026

K4 League · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Jungnang Chorus Mustang46%

×Draw25%

Pyeongtaek Citizen29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jungnang Chorus MustangExpected goals in this matchPyeongtaek Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.19

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.58

Pyeongtaek Citizen

1.19

Jungnang Chorus Mustang creates 33% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

1.17

1.22

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.33

Pyeongtaek Citizen

1.17

allows per match

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.22

Pyeongtaek Citizen

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jungnang Chorus Mustang+0.00on par

Pyeongtaek Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jungnang Chorus Mustang ↓

Pyeongtaek Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Jungnang Chorus Mustang or draw

71%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang or Pyeongtaek Citizen

75%

Draw or Pyeongtaek Citizen

54%

Winning margin

Jungnang Chorus Mustang wins by 2+

24%

Pyeongtaek Citizen wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1+ goals

79%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 2+ goals

47%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 3+ goals

21%

Pyeongtaek Citizen 1+ goals

70%

Pyeongtaek Citizen 2+ goals

33%

Pyeongtaek Citizen 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Jungnang Chorus Mustang (draw refunded)

62%

Pyeongtaek Citizen (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jungnang Chorus Mustang at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Pyeongtaek Citizen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jungnang Chorus Mustang attack 1.33 + Pyeongtaek Citizen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Pyeongtaek Citizen attack 1.17 + Jungnang Chorus Mustang defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jungnang Chorus Mustang scores more

46%

level

25%

Pyeongtaek Citizen scores more

29%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Jungnang Chorus Mustang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff