Jungnang Chorus Mustang 0–3 Paju Citizen

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Paju Citizen

3/8/2025

FA Cup · 1st RoundJungnang Sport Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Jungnang Chorus Mustang37%

×Draw22%

Paju Citizen42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jungnang Chorus MustangExpected goals in this matchPaju Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.92

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.79

Paju Citizen

1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

2.25

creates per match

2.33

1.50

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

2.25

Paju Citizen

2.33

allows per match

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.50

Paju Citizen

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jungnang Chorus Mustang+0.00on par

Paju Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jungnang Chorus Mustang ↓

Paju Citizen →

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Jungnang Chorus Mustang or draw

58%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang or Paju Citizen

78%

Draw or Paju Citizen

63%

Winning margin

Jungnang Chorus Mustang wins by 2+

19%

Paju Citizen wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1+ goals

83%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 2+ goals

53%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 3+ goals

26%

Paju Citizen 1+ goals

85%

Paju Citizen 2+ goals

57%

Paju Citizen 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Jungnang Chorus Mustang (draw refunded)

47%

Paju Citizen (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jungnang Chorus Mustang at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Paju Citizen away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jungnang Chorus Mustang attack 2.25 + Paju Citizen defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Paju Citizen attack 2.33 + Jungnang Chorus Mustang defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jungnang Chorus Mustang scores more

37%

level

22%

Paju Citizen scores more

42%

Paju Citizen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Paju Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff