Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1–2 Jecheon Citizen

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

FT

1 – 2

Jecheon Citizen

5/23/2026

K4 League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Jungnang Chorus Mustang36%

×Draw28%

Jecheon Citizen36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jungnang Chorus MustangExpected goals in this matchJecheon Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.17

Jecheon Citizen

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.33

creates per match

1.11

1.22

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.33

Jecheon Citizen

1.11

allows per match

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.22

Jecheon Citizen

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jungnang Chorus Mustang+0.00on par

Jecheon Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jungnang Chorus Mustang ↓

Jecheon Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Jungnang Chorus Mustang or draw

64%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang or Jecheon Citizen

72%

Draw or Jecheon Citizen

64%

Winning margin

Jungnang Chorus Mustang wins by 2+

15%

Jecheon Citizen wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1+ goals

69%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 2+ goals

33%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 3+ goals

11%

Jecheon Citizen 1+ goals

69%

Jecheon Citizen 2+ goals

33%

Jecheon Citizen 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jungnang Chorus Mustang (draw refunded)

50%

Jecheon Citizen (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jungnang Chorus Mustang at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Jecheon Citizen away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jungnang Chorus Mustang attack 1.33 + Jecheon Citizen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Jecheon Citizen attack 1.11 + Jungnang Chorus Mustang defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Jungnang Chorus Mustang scores more

36%

level

28%

Jecheon Citizen scores more

36%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Jungnang Chorus Mustang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff