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Jungnang Chorus Mustang vs Geumsan Insam — K4 League 2026

Jungnang Chorus Mustang
Jungnang Chorus Mustang
FT
1 – 1
Geumsan Insam
Geumsan Insam
4/5/2026K4 LeagueK4 League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Jungnang Chorus Mustang34%
×Draw25%
Geumsan Insam41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jungnang Chorus Mustang
1.39
Geumsan Insam
1.55

Geumsan Insam creates 12% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Jungnang Chorus Mustang
1.33
Geumsan Insam
1.89

allows per match

Jungnang Chorus Mustang
1.22
Geumsan Insam
1.44

finishing

Jungnang Chorus Mustang+0.00on par
Geumsan Insam+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jungnang Chorus Mustang ↓

Geumsan Insam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jungnang Chorus Mustang or draw
59%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang or Geumsan Insam
75%
Draw or Geumsan Insam
66%

Winning margin

Jungnang Chorus Mustang wins by 2+
15%
Geumsan Insam wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1+ goals
75%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang 2+ goals
40%
Jungnang Chorus Mustang 3+ goals
16%
Geumsan Insam 1+ goals
79%
Geumsan Insam 2+ goals
46%
Geumsan Insam 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Jungnang Chorus Mustang (draw refunded)
45%
Geumsan Insam (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jungnang Chorus Mustang at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Geumsan Insam away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jungnang Chorus Mustang attack 1.33 + Geumsan Insam defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Geumsan Insam attack 1.89 + Jungnang Chorus Mustang defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jungnang Chorus Mustang scores more
34%
level
25%
Geumsan Insam scores more
41%

Geumsan Insam at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Geumsan Insam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K4 League: Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1–1 Geumsan Insam

Jungnang Chorus Mustang and Geumsan Insam drew 1-1 in K4 League on April 5, 2026.