Jungnang Chorus Mustang 0–1 Geoje Citizen

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

FT

0 – 1

Geoje Citizen

4/25/2026

K4 League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Jungnang Chorus Mustang33%

×Draw26%

Geoje Citizen41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jungnang Chorus MustangExpected goals in this matchGeoje Citizen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.42

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.23

Geoje Citizen

1.42

Geoje Citizen creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.33

creates per match

1.63

1.22

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.33

Geoje Citizen

1.63

allows per match

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

1.22

Geoje Citizen

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jungnang Chorus Mustang+0.00on par

Geoje Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jungnang Chorus Mustang ↓

Geoje Citizen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Jungnang Chorus Mustang or draw

59%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang or Geoje Citizen

74%

Draw or Geoje Citizen

67%

Winning margin

Jungnang Chorus Mustang wins by 2+

14%

Geoje Citizen wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 1+ goals

71%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 2+ goals

35%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang 3+ goals

13%

Geoje Citizen 1+ goals

76%

Geoje Citizen 2+ goals

41%

Geoje Citizen 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Jungnang Chorus Mustang (draw refunded)

44%

Geoje Citizen (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jungnang Chorus Mustang at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Geoje Citizen away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jungnang Chorus Mustang attack 1.33 + Geoje Citizen defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Geoje Citizen attack 1.63 + Jungnang Chorus Mustang defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jungnang Chorus Mustang scores more

33%

level

26%

Geoje Citizen scores more

41%

Geoje Citizen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Geoje Citizen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff