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Junak vs Zmaj Blato — Third NL - Jug 2019

Junak
Junak
CANC
00:00
Zmaj Blato
Zmaj Blato
4/25/2020Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 25Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Junak70%
×Draw17%
Zmaj Blato13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junak
2.60
Zmaj Blato
1.05

Junak creates 148% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 25 away

creates per match

Junak
2.13
Zmaj Blato
1.08

allows per match

Junak
1.02
Zmaj Blato
3.08

finishing

Junak+0.00on par
Zmaj Blato+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junak ↓

Zmaj Blato →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Junak or draw
87%
Junak or Zmaj Blato
83%
Draw or Zmaj Blato
30%

Winning margin

Junak wins by 2+
48%
Zmaj Blato wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Junak 1+ goals
92%
Junak 2+ goals
73%
Junak 3+ goals
47%
Zmaj Blato 1+ goals
65%
Zmaj Blato 2+ goals
28%
Zmaj Blato 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Junak (draw refunded)
84%
Zmaj Blato (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junak at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.02 · 86 matches

Zmaj Blato away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.08 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junak attack 2.13 + Zmaj Blato defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.60

Zmaj Blato attack 1.08 + Junak defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Junak scores more
70%
level
17%
Zmaj Blato scores more
13%

Junak at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Junak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Junak face Zmaj Blato (Third NL - Jug)

Third NL - Jug returns with Junak hosting Zmaj Blato. Match starts April 25, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Junak host Zmaj Blato at Gradski Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.