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Junak vs Zagora — Third NL - Jug 2019

Junak
Junak
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Zagora
Zagora
4/4/2026Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 21Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Junak51%
×Draw23%
Zagora26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junak
1.85
Zagora
1.25

Junak creates 48% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 102 away

creates per match

Junak
2.13
Zagora
1.47

allows per match

Junak
1.02
Zagora
1.57

finishing

Junak+0.00on par
Zagora+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junak ↓

Zagora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Junak or draw
74%
Junak or Zagora
77%
Draw or Zagora
49%

Winning margin

Junak wins by 2+
29%
Zagora wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Junak 1+ goals
84%
Junak 2+ goals
55%
Junak 3+ goals
28%
Zagora 1+ goals
71%
Zagora 2+ goals
36%
Zagora 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Junak (draw refunded)
66%
Zagora (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junak at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.02 · 86 matches

Zagora away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junak attack 2.13 + Zagora defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.85

Zagora attack 1.47 + Junak defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Junak scores more
51%
level
23%
Zagora scores more
26%

Junak at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Junak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Junak 1 – 2 Zagora

Zagora beat Junak 2-1 in Third NL - Jug on April 4, 2026.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Sinj.