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Junak vs Urania Baška Voda — Third NL - Jug 2019

Junak
Junak
FT
1 – 0
Urania Baška Voda
Urania Baška Voda
9/7/2019Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 2Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Junak65%
×Draw20%
Urania Baška Voda15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junak
2.13
Urania Baška Voda
0.92

Junak creates 132% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 57 away

creates per match

Junak
2.13
Urania Baška Voda
0.81

allows per match

Junak
1.02
Urania Baška Voda
2.12

finishing

Junak+0.00on par
Urania Baška Voda+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junak ↓

Urania Baška Voda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Junak or draw
85%
Junak or Urania Baška Voda
80%
Draw or Urania Baška Voda
35%

Winning margin

Junak wins by 2+
41%
Urania Baška Voda wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Junak 1+ goals
88%
Junak 2+ goals
63%
Junak 3+ goals
35%
Urania Baška Voda 1+ goals
60%
Urania Baška Voda 2+ goals
23%
Urania Baška Voda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Junak (draw refunded)
81%
Urania Baška Voda (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junak at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.02 · 86 matches

Urania Baška Voda away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.12 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junak attack 2.13 + Urania Baška Voda defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.13

Urania Baška Voda attack 0.81 + Junak defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Junak scores more
65%
level
20%
Urania Baška Voda scores more
15%

Junak at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Junak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Junak vs Urania Baška Voda

Junak beat Urania Baška Voda 1-0 in Third NL - Jug on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Sinj.