Junak 1–0 Sloga Mravince: Result & Stats

Junak

FT

1 – 0

Sloga Mravince

5/11/2024

Third NL - Jug · South - 28Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Junak55%

×Draw22%

Sloga Mravince23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JunakExpected goals in this matchSloga Mravince

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.14

Junak

1.89

Sloga Mravince

1.14

Junak creates 66% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 102 away

2.13

creates per match

1.25

1.02

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Junak

2.13

Sloga Mravince

1.25

allows per match

Junak

1.02

Sloga Mravince

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Junak+0.00on par

Sloga Mravince+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junak ↓

Sloga Mravince →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Junak or draw

77%

Junak or Sloga Mravince

78%

Draw or Sloga Mravince

45%

Winning margin

Junak wins by 2+

31%

Sloga Mravince wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Junak 1+ goals

85%

Junak 2+ goals

56%

Junak 3+ goals

29%

Sloga Mravince 1+ goals

68%

Sloga Mravince 2+ goals

32%

Sloga Mravince 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Junak (draw refunded)

71%

Sloga Mravince (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junak at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.02 · 86 matches

Sloga Mravince away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.65 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junak attack 2.13 + Sloga Mravince defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.89

Sloga Mravince attack 1.25 + Junak defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Junak scores more

55%

level

22%

Sloga Mravince scores more

23%

Junak at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Junak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff