Junak 2–2 Inter Zapresic: Result & Stats | First NL

Junak

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Inter Zapresic

M. Barać 48'

P. Bašić-Šiško 18'

B. Kukoč 38' (OG)

M. Šroler 9' (pen)

9/30/2020

First NL · Round 8Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Junak37%

×Draw25%

Inter Zapresic37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JunakExpected goals in this matchInter Zapresic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.39

Junak

1.38

Inter Zapresic

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 32 away

1.41

creates per match

1.19

1.59

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Junak

1.41

Inter Zapresic

1.19

allows per match

Junak

1.59

Inter Zapresic

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Junak+0.00on par

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junak ↓

Inter Zapresic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Junak or draw

63%

Junak or Inter Zapresic

75%

Draw or Inter Zapresic

63%

Winning margin

Junak wins by 2+

17%

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Junak 1+ goals

75%

Junak 2+ goals

40%

Junak 3+ goals

16%

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals

75%

Inter Zapresic 2+ goals

40%

Inter Zapresic 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Junak (draw refunded)

50%

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junak at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junak attack 1.41 + Inter Zapresic defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.38

Inter Zapresic attack 1.19 + Junak defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Junak scores more

37%

level

25%

Inter Zapresic scores more

37%

Junak at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Junak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

M. ŠrolerPenalty

18'

P. Bašić-Šiško

38'

B. KukočOwn goal

46'

M. Dunić← D. Magdić

46'

I. Križanović← M. Matković

46'

P. Mbodji← B. Zdunić

48'

M. Barać

65'

A. Vuleta← L. Andrić

65'

M. Benčić← T. Mazalović

75'

T. Bliznac← P. Bašić-Šiško

75'

P. Botica← A. Bandalo

80'

D. Maganić← R. Jandrek

80'

I. Bilić← S. Barać

Junak

Inter

35

▼

4

18

6

28

▼

Mazalović

3

Plezier

16

▼

Magdić

11

Mamut

9

⚽

Šroler

21

Vranjkovi

19

▼

Zdunić

10

▼

Andrić

1

Runje

9

▼

Bandalo

8

Fuštin

4

▼

Barać

2

Vuković

47

▼

Jandrek

24

Jenjić

17

🥅

Kukoč

5

⚽

▼

Bašić-Šiš

7

⚽

Barać

Manager: I. Punoš

65'▲A. Vuleta←▼L. Andrić

75'▲T. Bliznac←▼P. Bašić-Šiško

75'▲P. Botica←▼A. Bandalo

80'▲D. Maganić←▼R. Jandrek

80'▲I. Bilić←▼S. Barać

Junak substitutes

16Vuleta18Bliznac23Botica11Maganić20Bilić14Rončević15Mihovilović22Vardić12Ćurković

Manager: T. Ivković

46'▲M. Dunić←▼D. Magdić

46'▲I. Križanović←▼M. Matković

46'▲P. Mbodji←▼B. Zdunić

65'▲M. Benčić←▼T. Mazalović

Inter Zapresic substitutes

8Dunić12Križanović15Mbodji7Benčić14Soldo20Uzelac25Uzelac