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Junak vs HNK Hajduk Split II — Third NL - Jug 2019

Junak
Junak
FT
1 – 1
HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
10/7/2023Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 8Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Junak73%
×Draw16%
HNK Hajduk Split II11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junak
2.60
HNK Hajduk Split II
0.91

Junak creates 186% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 15 away

creates per match

Junak
2.13
HNK Hajduk Split II
0.80

allows per match

Junak
1.02
HNK Hajduk Split II
3.07

finishing

Junak+0.00on par
HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junak ↓

HNK Hajduk Split II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Junak or draw
89%
Junak or HNK Hajduk Split II
84%
Draw or HNK Hajduk Split II
27%

Winning margin

Junak wins by 2+
51%
HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Junak 1+ goals
92%
Junak 2+ goals
73%
Junak 3+ goals
47%
HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
60%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
23%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Junak (draw refunded)
87%
HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junak at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.02 · 86 matches

HNK Hajduk Split II away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junak attack 2.13 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.60

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 0.80 + Junak defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Junak scores more
73%
level
16%
HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
11%

Junak at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Junak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Junak vs HNK Hajduk Split II

Junak and HNK Hajduk Split II drew 1-1 in Third NL - Jug on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Sinj.