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Junak vs GOŠK Dubrovnik — Third NL - Jug 2019

Junak
Junak
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
GOŠK Dubrovnik
GOŠK Dubrovnik
11/30/2024Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 15Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Junak61%
×Draw21%
GOŠK Dubrovnik18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Junak
1.96
GOŠK Dubrovnik
0.94

Junak creates 109% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 102 away

creates per match

Junak
2.13
GOŠK Dubrovnik
0.86

allows per match

Junak
1.02
GOŠK Dubrovnik
1.79

finishing

Junak+0.00on par
GOŠK Dubrovnik+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Junak ↓

GOŠK Dubrovnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Junak or draw
82%
Junak or GOŠK Dubrovnik
79%
Draw or GOŠK Dubrovnik
39%

Winning margin

Junak wins by 2+
37%
GOŠK Dubrovnik wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Junak 1+ goals
86%
Junak 2+ goals
58%
Junak 3+ goals
31%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 1+ goals
61%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 2+ goals
24%
GOŠK Dubrovnik 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Junak (draw refunded)
78%
GOŠK Dubrovnik (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Junak at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.02 · 86 matches

GOŠK Dubrovnik away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.79 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Junak attack 2.13 + GOŠK Dubrovnik defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.96

GOŠK Dubrovnik attack 0.86 + Junak defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Junak scores more
61%
level
21%
GOŠK Dubrovnik scores more
18%

Junak at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Junak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Junak vs GOŠK Dubrovnik

Junak beat GOŠK Dubrovnik 3-0 in Third NL - Jug on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Sinj.