Judenburg 1–2 Union RB Weinland Gamlit

Judenburg

FT

1 – 2

Union RB Weinland Gamlit

10/8/2022

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 12Stadion Judenburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Judenburg39%

×Draw22%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JudenburgExpected goals in this matchUnion RB Weinland Gamlit

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.79

Judenburg

1.77

Union RB Weinland Gamlit

1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 86 away

1.53

creates per match

1.57

2.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Judenburg

1.53

Union RB Weinland Gamlit

1.57

allows per match

Judenburg

2.00

Union RB Weinland Gamlit

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Judenburg+0.00on par

Union RB Weinland Gamlit+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Judenburg ↓

Union RB Weinland Gamlit →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Judenburg or draw

61%

Judenburg or Union RB Weinland Gamlit

78%

Draw or Union RB Weinland Gamlit

61%

Winning margin

Judenburg wins by 2+

20%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Judenburg 1+ goals

83%

Judenburg 2+ goals

53%

Judenburg 3+ goals

26%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit 1+ goals

83%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit 2+ goals

53%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Judenburg (draw refunded)

49%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Judenburg at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Union RB Weinland Gamlit away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.00 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Judenburg attack 1.53 + Union RB Weinland Gamlit defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Union RB Weinland Gamlit attack 1.57 + Judenburg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Judenburg scores more

39%

level

22%

Union RB Weinland Gamlit scores more

39%

Judenburg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Judenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff