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Judenburg vs UFC Fehring — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Judenburg
Judenburg
FT
2 – 3
UFC Fehring
UFC Fehring
8/5/2022Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 2Stadion Judenburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Judenburg40%
×Draw22%
UFC Fehring38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Judenburg
1.79
UFC Fehring
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

creates per match

Judenburg
1.53
UFC Fehring
1.50

allows per match

Judenburg
2.00
UFC Fehring
2.05

finishing

Judenburg+0.00on par
UFC Fehring+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Judenburg ↓

UFC Fehring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Judenburg or draw
62%
Judenburg or UFC Fehring
78%
Draw or UFC Fehring
60%

Winning margin

Judenburg wins by 2+
21%
UFC Fehring wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Judenburg 1+ goals
83%
Judenburg 2+ goals
53%
Judenburg 3+ goals
26%
UFC Fehring 1+ goals
83%
UFC Fehring 2+ goals
52%
UFC Fehring 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Judenburg (draw refunded)
51%
UFC Fehring (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Judenburg at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

UFC Fehring away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.05 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Judenburg attack 1.53 + UFC Fehring defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.79

UFC Fehring attack 1.50 + Judenburg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Judenburg scores more
40%
level
22%
UFC Fehring scores more
38%

Judenburg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Judenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Judenburg vs UFC Fehring

UFC Fehring beat Judenburg 3-2 in Landesliga - Steiermark on August 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Judenburg in Judenburg.