Judenburg 1–6 Mettersdorf: Result & Stats

Judenburg

FT

1 – 6

Mettersdorf

8/19/2022

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 4Stadion Judenburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Judenburg28%

×Draw22%

Mettersdorf49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JudenburgExpected goals in this matchMettersdorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.93

Judenburg

1.42

Mettersdorf

1.93

Mettersdorf creates 36% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

1.53

creates per match

1.86

2.00

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Judenburg

1.53

Mettersdorf

1.86

allows per match

Judenburg

2.00

Mettersdorf

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Judenburg+0.00on par

Mettersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Judenburg ↓

Mettersdorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Judenburg or draw

51%

Judenburg or Mettersdorf

78%

Draw or Mettersdorf

72%

Winning margin

Judenburg wins by 2+

13%

Mettersdorf wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Judenburg 1+ goals

76%

Judenburg 2+ goals

41%

Judenburg 3+ goals

17%

Mettersdorf 1+ goals

85%

Mettersdorf 2+ goals

57%

Mettersdorf 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Judenburg (draw refunded)

37%

Mettersdorf (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Judenburg at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Mettersdorf away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Judenburg attack 1.53 + Mettersdorf defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mettersdorf attack 1.86 + Judenburg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Judenburg scores more

28%

level

22%

Mettersdorf scores more

49%

Mettersdorf at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mettersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff