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Jubilo Iwata vs Shimizu S-pulse — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Jubilo Iwata
Jubilo Iwata
CANC
02:30
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
2/10/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Shiranami Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jubilo Iwata15%
×Draw24%
Shimizu S-pulse61%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jubilo Iwata
0.67
Shimizu S-pulse
1.67

Shimizu S-pulse creates 149% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Jubilo Iwata
0.67
Shimizu S-pulse
2.00

allows per match

Jubilo Iwata
1.33
Shimizu S-pulse
0.67

finishing

Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jubilo Iwata ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–116%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Jubilo Iwata or draw
39%
Jubilo Iwata or Shimizu S-pulse
76%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
85%

Winning margin

Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+
4%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals
49%
Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals
15%
Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals
3%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
81%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
50%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)
19%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jubilo Iwata at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jubilo Iwata attack 0.67 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Shimizu S-pulse attack 2.00 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Jubilo Iwata scores more
15%
level
24%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
61%

Shimizu S-pulse at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jubilo Iwata vs Shimizu S-pulse — Match Preview

Jubilo Iwata face Shimizu S-pulse on February 10, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Jubilo Iwata host Shimizu S-pulse at Shiranami Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.