Jubilee 1–1 Nimba United: Result & Stats

Jubilee

FT

1 – 1

Nimba United

4/7/2023

LFA First Division · Round 24Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Jubilee33%

×Draw24%

Nimba United43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JubileeExpected goals in this matchNimba United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.65

Jubilee

1.41

Nimba United

1.65

Nimba United creates 17% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 33 away

0.81

creates per match

1.06

2.24

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Jubilee

0.81

Nimba United

1.06

allows per match

Jubilee

2.24

Nimba United

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jubilee+0.00on par

Nimba United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jubilee ↓

Nimba United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Jubilee or draw

57%

Jubilee or Nimba United

76%

Draw or Nimba United

67%

Winning margin

Jubilee wins by 2+

15%

Nimba United wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Jubilee 1+ goals

76%

Jubilee 2+ goals

41%

Jubilee 3+ goals

17%

Nimba United 1+ goals

81%

Nimba United 2+ goals

49%

Nimba United 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Jubilee (draw refunded)

43%

Nimba United (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jubilee at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

Nimba United away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.00 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jubilee attack 0.81 + Nimba United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.41

Nimba United attack 1.06 + Jubilee defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jubilee scores more

33%

level

24%

Nimba United scores more

43%

Nimba United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nimba United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff