Jubilee 0–3 Mighty Barrolle: Result & Stats

Jubilee

FT

0 – 3

Mighty Barrolle

4/22/2023

LFA First Division · Round 26Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Jubilee23%

×Draw23%

Mighty Barrolle55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JubileeExpected goals in this matchMighty Barrolle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.86

Jubilee

1.11

Mighty Barrolle

1.86

Mighty Barrolle creates 68% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 61 away

0.81

creates per match

1.48

2.24

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Jubilee

0.81

Mighty Barrolle

1.48

allows per match

Jubilee

2.24

Mighty Barrolle

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jubilee+0.00on par

Mighty Barrolle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jubilee ↓

Mighty Barrolle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Jubilee or draw

45%

Jubilee or Mighty Barrolle

77%

Draw or Mighty Barrolle

77%

Winning margin

Jubilee wins by 2+

9%

Mighty Barrolle wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Jubilee 1+ goals

67%

Jubilee 2+ goals

30%

Jubilee 3+ goals

10%

Mighty Barrolle 1+ goals

84%

Mighty Barrolle 2+ goals

55%

Mighty Barrolle 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Jubilee (draw refunded)

29%

Mighty Barrolle (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jubilee at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

Mighty Barrolle away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.41 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jubilee attack 0.81 + Mighty Barrolle defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.11

Mighty Barrolle attack 1.48 + Jubilee defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jubilee scores more

23%

level

23%

Mighty Barrolle scores more

55%

Mighty Barrolle at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mighty Barrolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff