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Jubilee vs Invincible Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

Jubilee
Jubilee
FT
0 – 1
Invincible Eleven
Invincible Eleven
2/22/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 17Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Jubilee31%
×Draw25%
Invincible Eleven44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jubilee
1.29
Invincible Eleven
1.57

Invincible Eleven creates 22% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 51 away

creates per match

Jubilee
0.81
Invincible Eleven
0.90

allows per match

Jubilee
2.24
Invincible Eleven
1.76

finishing

Jubilee+0.00on par
Invincible Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jubilee ↓

Invincible Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Jubilee or draw
56%
Jubilee or Invincible Eleven
75%
Draw or Invincible Eleven
69%

Winning margin

Jubilee wins by 2+
13%
Invincible Eleven wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Jubilee 1+ goals
72%
Jubilee 2+ goals
37%
Jubilee 3+ goals
14%
Invincible Eleven 1+ goals
79%
Invincible Eleven 2+ goals
46%
Invincible Eleven 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Jubilee (draw refunded)
42%
Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jubilee at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

Invincible Eleven away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jubilee attack 0.81 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.29

Invincible Eleven attack 0.90 + Jubilee defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jubilee scores more
31%
level
25%
Invincible Eleven scores more
44%

Invincible Eleven at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Invincible Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jubilee vs Invincible Eleven

Invincible Eleven beat Jubilee 1-0 in LFA First Division on February 22, 2023.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch in Monrovia.