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Juazeiro BA vs Grapiuna Itabuna — Baiano - 2 2019

Juazeiro BA
Juazeiro BA
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Grapiuna Itabuna
Grapiuna Itabuna
7/9/2023Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 9Estádio Adauto Moraes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Juazeiro BA60%
×Draw24%
Grapiuna Itabuna16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juazeiro BA
1.69
Grapiuna Itabuna
0.74

Juazeiro BA creates 128% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 26 away

creates per match

Juazeiro BA
1.91
Grapiuna Itabuna
0.85

allows per match

Juazeiro BA
0.64
Grapiuna Itabuna
1.46

finishing

Juazeiro BA+0.00on par
Grapiuna Itabuna+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juazeiro BA ↓

Grapiuna Itabuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Juazeiro BA or draw
84%
Juazeiro BA or Grapiuna Itabuna
76%
Draw or Grapiuna Itabuna
40%

Winning margin

Juazeiro BA wins by 2+
34%
Grapiuna Itabuna wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Juazeiro BA 1+ goals
82%
Juazeiro BA 2+ goals
50%
Juazeiro BA 3+ goals
24%
Grapiuna Itabuna 1+ goals
52%
Grapiuna Itabuna 2+ goals
17%
Grapiuna Itabuna 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Juazeiro BA (draw refunded)
79%
Grapiuna Itabuna (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juazeiro BA at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Grapiuna Itabuna away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juazeiro BA attack 1.91 + Grapiuna Itabuna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.69

Grapiuna Itabuna attack 0.85 + Juazeiro BA defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Juazeiro BA scores more
60%
level
24%
Grapiuna Itabuna scores more
16%

Juazeiro BA at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Juazeiro BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Juazeiro BA 1–2 Grapiuna Itabuna

Grapiuna Itabuna beat Juazeiro BA 2-1 in Baiano - 2 on July 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Adauto Moraes in Juazeiro, Bahia.