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Juazeiro BA vs Flamengo BA — Baiano - 2 2019

Juazeiro BA
Juazeiro BA
FT
2 – 1
Flamengo BA
Flamengo BA
6/5/2022Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 4Estádio Adauto Moraes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Juazeiro BA62%
×Draw24%
Flamengo BA14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juazeiro BA
1.65
Flamengo BA
0.62

Juazeiro BA creates 166% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Juazeiro BA
1.91
Flamengo BA
0.60

allows per match

Juazeiro BA
0.64
Flamengo BA
1.40

finishing

Juazeiro BA+0.00on par
Flamengo BA+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juazeiro BA ↓

Flamengo BA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Juazeiro BA or draw
86%
Juazeiro BA or Flamengo BA
76%
Draw or Flamengo BA
38%

Winning margin

Juazeiro BA wins by 2+
35%
Flamengo BA wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Juazeiro BA 1+ goals
81%
Juazeiro BA 2+ goals
49%
Juazeiro BA 3+ goals
23%
Flamengo BA 1+ goals
46%
Flamengo BA 2+ goals
13%
Flamengo BA 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Juazeiro BA (draw refunded)
82%
Flamengo BA (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juazeiro BA at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Flamengo BA away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juazeiro BA attack 1.91 + Flamengo BA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.65

Flamengo BA attack 0.60 + Juazeiro BA defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Juazeiro BA scores more
62%
level
24%
Flamengo BA scores more
14%

Juazeiro BA at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Juazeiro BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Juazeiro BA 2–1 Flamengo BA

Juazeiro BA beat Flamengo BA 2-1 in Baiano - 2 on June 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Adauto Moraes in Juazeiro, Bahia.