Juazeiro BA 2–0 ABPN Canaã: Result & Stats

Juazeiro BA

FT

2 – 0

ABPN Canaã

6/15/2022

Baiano - 2 · Round 6Estádio Adauto Moraes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Juazeiro BA67%

×Draw21%

ABPN Canaã12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juazeiro BAExpected goals in this matchABPN Canaã

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.64

Juazeiro BA

1.86

ABPN Canaã

0.64

Juazeiro BA creates 191% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

1.91

creates per match

0.64

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Juazeiro BA

1.91

ABPN Canaã

0.64

allows per match

Juazeiro BA

0.64

ABPN Canaã

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juazeiro BA+0.00on par

ABPN Canaã+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juazeiro BA ↓

ABPN Canaã →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Juazeiro BA or draw

88%

Juazeiro BA or ABPN Canaã

79%

Draw or ABPN Canaã

33%

Winning margin

Juazeiro BA wins by 2+

40%

ABPN Canaã wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Juazeiro BA 1+ goals

84%

Juazeiro BA 2+ goals

55%

Juazeiro BA 3+ goals

28%

ABPN Canaã 1+ goals

47%

ABPN Canaã 2+ goals

14%

ABPN Canaã 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Juazeiro BA (draw refunded)

85%

ABPN Canaã (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juazeiro BA at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

ABPN Canaã away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juazeiro BA attack 1.91 + ABPN Canaã defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.86

ABPN Canaã attack 0.64 + Juazeiro BA defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Juazeiro BA scores more

67%

level

21%

ABPN Canaã scores more

12%

Juazeiro BA at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Juazeiro BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff