Juazeirense 1–0 Sergipe: Result & Stats | Serie D

Juazeirense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sergipe

Mateus Abraão 16'

7/9/2022

Serie D · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Adauto Moraes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Juazeirense41%

×Draw30%

Sergipe29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuazeirenseExpected goals in this matchSergipe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.89

Juazeirense

1.13

Sergipe

0.89

Juazeirense creates 27% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 51 away

1.02

creates per match

1.10

0.68

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Juazeirense

1.02

Sergipe

1.10

allows per match

Juazeirense

0.68

Sergipe

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juazeirense+0.00on par

Sergipe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juazeirense ↓

Sergipe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Juazeirense or draw

71%

Juazeirense or Sergipe

70%

Draw or Sergipe

59%

Winning margin

Juazeirense wins by 2+

17%

Sergipe wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Juazeirense 1+ goals

68%

Juazeirense 2+ goals

31%

Juazeirense 3+ goals

11%

Sergipe 1+ goals

59%

Sergipe 2+ goals

22%

Sergipe 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Juazeirense (draw refunded)

59%

Sergipe (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juazeirense at home — creates 1.02, concedes 0.68 · 40 matches

Sergipe away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juazeirense attack 1.02 + Sergipe defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sergipe attack 1.10 + Juazeirense defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Juazeirense scores more

41%

level

30%

Sergipe scores more

29%

Juazeirense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Juazeirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Mateus Abraão

46'

Fabiano Santos← Kaio Wilker

54'

Matheus Reis← Mateus Abraão

70'

Philip← Alan James

74'

Daniel← Deysinho

74'

Thauan← Mauri

80'

Doda← Tales

88'

Nixon← Ian

89'

Thalles← Hiago

90+4'

Dida

Juazeirense

Sergipe

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Abraão

Manager: Agnaldo Liz

54'▲Matheus Reis←▼Mateus Abraão

74'▲Daniel←▼Deysinho

74'▲Thauan←▼Mauri

88'▲Nixon←▼Ian

Juazeirense substitutes

ReisDanielThauanNixonNeriBrenoEmílioReisCardosoThalisonEmerson

Manager: Rafael Jaques

46'▲Fabiano Santos←▼Kaio Wilker

70'▲Philip←▼Alan James

80'▲Doda←▼Tales

89'▲Thalles←▼Hiago

Sergipe substitutes

SantosPhilipDodaThallesGabrielPedrãoAugustoJúniorSinho