Juazeirense 1–0 Interporto: Result & Stats

Juazeirense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Interporto

Jeam 84'

6/9/2019

Serie D · Round 6Estádio Adauto Moraes (Juazeiro, Bahia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Juazeirense81%

×Draw14%

Interporto5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuazeirenseExpected goals in this matchInterporto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

0.45

Juazeirense

2.46

Interporto

0.45

Juazeirense creates 447% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 13 away

1.07

creates per match

0.23

0.66

allows per match

3.85

creates per match

Juazeirense

1.07

Interporto

0.23

allows per match

Juazeirense

0.66

Interporto

3.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juazeirense+0.00on par

Interporto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juazeirense ↓

Interporto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (17%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Juazeirense or draw

95%

Juazeirense or Interporto

86%

Draw or Interporto

19%

Winning margin

Juazeirense wins by 2+

59%

Interporto wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Juazeirense 1+ goals

91%

Juazeirense 2+ goals

70%

Juazeirense 3+ goals

44%

Interporto 1+ goals

36%

Interporto 2+ goals

8%

Interporto 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Juazeirense (draw refunded)

94%

Interporto (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juazeirense at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.66 · 41 matches

Interporto away — creates 0.23, concedes 3.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juazeirense attack 1.07 + Interporto defence 3.85 → ÷2 → 2.46

Interporto attack 0.23 + Juazeirense defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Juazeirense scores more

81%

level

14%

Interporto scores more

5%

Juazeirense at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Juazeirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

Gustavo← Willian Kaefer

45+2'

Marley← Lucas

46'

Clecio← Douglas

61'

Toni Galego← Nino Guerreiro

64'

Cleilton← Deijair

72'

Marquinhos← Emílio

84'

Jeam

Juazeirense

Interporto

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Carlos Rabello

39'▲Gustavo←▼Willian Kaefer

61'▲Toni Galego←▼Nino Guerreiro

72'▲Marquinhos←▼Emílio

Juazeirense substitutes

GustavoGalegoMarquinhosNeriCezarCesarDeijairEwertonFreitasNetoLuiz

Manager: Carlos Magno

45+2'▲Marley←▼Lucas

46'▲Clecio←▼Douglas

64'▲Cleilton←▼Deijair

Interporto substitutes

MarleyClecioCleiltonMarcio