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Juazeirense vs Botafogo PB — Serie C 2018

Juazeirense
Juazeirense
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Botafogo PB
Botafogo PB
6/9/2018Serie CSerie C · Round 9Estádio Adauto Moraes (Juazeiro, Bahia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Juazeirense50%
×Draw30%
Botafogo PB20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juazeirense
1.22
Botafogo PB
0.65

Juazeirense creates 88% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 88 away

creates per match

Juazeirense
1.33
Botafogo PB
0.86

allows per match

Juazeirense
0.44
Botafogo PB
1.10

finishing

Juazeirense+0.00on par
Botafogo PB+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juazeirense ↓

Botafogo PB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Juazeirense or draw
80%
Juazeirense or Botafogo PB
70%
Draw or Botafogo PB
50%

Winning margin

Juazeirense wins by 2+
23%
Botafogo PB wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Juazeirense 1+ goals
70%
Juazeirense 2+ goals
34%
Juazeirense 3+ goals
12%
Botafogo PB 1+ goals
48%
Botafogo PB 2+ goals
14%
Botafogo PB 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Juazeirense (draw refunded)
72%
Botafogo PB (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juazeirense at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

Botafogo PB away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juazeirense attack 1.33 + Botafogo PB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.22

Botafogo PB attack 0.86 + Juazeirense defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Juazeirense scores more
50%
level
30%
Botafogo PB scores more
20%

Juazeirense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Juazeirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juazeirense vs Botafogo PB

Juazeirense and Botafogo PB drew 1-1 in Serie C on June 9, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Adauto Moraes (Juazeiro, Bahia).