Juazeirense 1–1 Barcelona BA: Result & Stats

Juazeirense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Barcelona BA

John Lessa 79' (OG)

Diney 42' (OG)

5/4/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Adauto Moraes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Juazeirense61%

×Draw26%

Barcelona BA14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuazeirenseExpected goals in this matchBarcelona BA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.58

Juazeirense

1.53

Barcelona BA

0.58

Juazeirense creates 164% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

1.06

creates per match

0.29

0.88

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Juazeirense

1.06

Barcelona BA

0.29

allows per match

Juazeirense

0.88

Barcelona BA

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juazeirense+0.00on par

Barcelona BA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juazeirense ↓

Barcelona BA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Juazeirense or draw

86%

Juazeirense or Barcelona BA

74%

Draw or Barcelona BA

39%

Winning margin

Juazeirense wins by 2+

32%

Barcelona BA wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Juazeirense 1+ goals

78%

Juazeirense 2+ goals

45%

Juazeirense 3+ goals

20%

Barcelona BA 1+ goals

44%

Barcelona BA 2+ goals

12%

Barcelona BA 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Juazeirense (draw refunded)

81%

Barcelona BA (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juazeirense at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Barcelona BA away — creates 0.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juazeirense attack 1.06 + Barcelona BA defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.53

Barcelona BA attack 0.29 + Juazeirense defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Juazeirense scores more

61%

level

26%

Barcelona BA scores more

14%

Juazeirense at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Juazeirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

DineyOwn goal

79'

John LessaOwn goal

Juazeirense

Barcelona

🥅

Juazeirense substitutes

DineyAlexsandroClébsonBaianoVaroloLeonardoWaguinhoSantosLinoTrindadeJaílsonMateus

Manager: Carlos Rabello

Barcelona BA substitutes

AraújoRichardClebsonGianSandreSalesRenanDikDeusFormigaPeresNadson

Serie D: Juazeirense 1–1 Barcelona BA

Juazeirense and Barcelona BA drew 1-1 in Serie D on May 4, 2025.

Goals: Diney (42' o.g.), John Lessa (79' o.g.).

The match was played at Estádio Adauto Moraes in Juazeiro.

Juazeirense vs Barcelona BA — Serie D 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie D: Juazeirense 1–1 Barcelona BA