Juazeirense 2–2 ABC: Result & Stats | Serie C

Juazeirense

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

ABC

Juninho Tardelli 52' (pen), 13'

Matheus Carvalho 42'

Rodrigo Rodrigues 34'

6/23/2018

Serie C · Round 11Estádio Adauto Moraes (Juazeiro, Bahia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Juazeirense52%

×Draw30%

ABC18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JuazeirenseExpected goals in this matchABC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.60

Juazeirense

1.24

ABC

0.60

Juazeirense creates 107% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 53 away

1.33

creates per match

0.77

0.44

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Juazeirense

1.33

ABC

0.77

allows per match

Juazeirense

0.44

ABC

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juazeirense+0.00on par

ABC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juazeirense ↓

ABC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Juazeirense or draw

82%

Juazeirense or ABC

70%

Draw or ABC

48%

Winning margin

Juazeirense wins by 2+

24%

ABC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Juazeirense 1+ goals

71%

Juazeirense 2+ goals

35%

Juazeirense 3+ goals

13%

ABC 1+ goals

45%

ABC 2+ goals

12%

ABC 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Juazeirense (draw refunded)

74%

ABC (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juazeirense at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

ABC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juazeirense attack 1.33 + ABC defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.24

ABC attack 0.77 + Juazeirense defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Juazeirense scores more

52%

level

30%

ABC scores more

18%

Juazeirense at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Juazeirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Juninho Tardelli

34'

Rodrigo Rodrigues

42'

Matheus Carvalho

46'

Cascata← Jussimar

46'

Igor Bohn← Rodrigo Carvalho

52'

Juninho TardelliPenalty

69'

Rayllan← Rodolfo Potiguar

79'

Salatiel← Toni Galego

80'

Leandro Cearense← Rodrigo Rodrigues

85'

Rafinha← Matheus Carvalho

Juazeirense

ABC

▼

⚽

▼

Carvalho

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ailton Silva

46'▲Cascata←▼Jussimar

69'▲Rayllan←▼Rodolfo Potiguar

79'▲Salatiel←▼Toni Galego

Juazeirense substitutes

CascataRayllanSalatielAlysonAndradeNeriEnercinoLucasYanPatrikSassá

Manager: Ranielle Ribeiro

46'▲Igor Bohn←▼Rodrigo Carvalho

80'▲Leandro Cearense←▼Rodrigo Rodrigues

85'▲Rafinha←▼Matheus Carvalho

ABC substitutes

BohnCearenseRafinhaDanielDanrleiErivéltonJardelLauderMaxwell