Juan Pablo II College 1–4 Universitario

Juan Pablo II College

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Universitario

M. Alaniz 82' (pen)

C. Fara 90'

Miguel Silveira 30'

E. Flores 24', 23'

5/3/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 13Estadio Municipal de la Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Juan Pablo II College38%

×Draw28%

Universitario34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juan Pablo II CollegeExpected goals in this matchUniversitario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.13

Juan Pablo II College

1.22

Universitario

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

1.60

creates per match

1.39

0.86

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Juan Pablo II College

1.60

Universitario

1.39

allows per match

Juan Pablo II College

0.86

Universitario

0.83

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Juan Pablo II College-0.04on par

Universitario-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juan Pablo II College ↓

Universitario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Juan Pablo II College or draw

66%

Juan Pablo II College or Universitario

72%

Draw or Universitario

62%

Winning margin

Juan Pablo II College wins by 2+

16%

Universitario wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Juan Pablo II College 1+ goals

70%

Juan Pablo II College 2+ goals

34%

Juan Pablo II College 3+ goals

12%

Universitario 1+ goals

68%

Universitario 2+ goals

31%

Universitario 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Juan Pablo II College (draw refunded)

53%

Universitario (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juan Pablo II College at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.86 · 9 matches

Universitario away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juan Pablo II College attack 1.60 + Universitario defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.22

Universitario attack 1.39 + Juan Pablo II College defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Juan Pablo II College scores more

38%

level

28%

Universitario scores more

34%

Juan Pablo II College at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Juan Pablo II College will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

Miguel Silveira

Universitario · M

9.0

Match Events

3'

3'

3'

22'

23'

24'

30'

Miguel Silveira↳ A. Santamaria

46'

C. Garcia← M. Juambeltz

46'

L. Alzugaray← E. Flores

65'

M. Perez Guedes← Miguel Silveira

65'

J. Concha← H. Fertoli

70'

Matías Di Benedetto

74'

J. Castillo← J. Murrugarra

75'

M. Peralta← F. Agurto

75'

79'

79'

81'

82'

M. AlanizPenalty

83'

Paolo Fuentes

88'

N. Ramirez← C. Tizon

90'

C. Fara↳ J. Concha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuanUniversitario

Overview

36%Possession64%

6Total Shots18

0Corners9

6Fouls24

Shots

6Total Shots18

1On Target9

3Off Target3

2Blocked6

1Inside Box13

5Outside Box5

Passing

36%Possession64%

242Total Passes408

178Accurate Passes349

74%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

6Fouls24

3Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1