Juan Pablo II College 3–1 Atletico Grau

Juan Pablo II College

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Atletico Grau

C. Tizon 68', 43'

M. Affonso 39' (pen)

N. Bandiera 56'

11/8/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 18Estadio Municipal de la Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Juan Pablo II College57%

×Draw24%

Atletico Grau19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juan Pablo II CollegeExpected goals in this matchAtletico Grau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.84

Juan Pablo II College

1.68

Atletico Grau

0.84

Juan Pablo II College creates 100% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.65

creates per match

0.84

0.85

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Juan Pablo II College

1.65

Atletico Grau

0.84

allows per match

Juan Pablo II College

0.85

Atletico Grau

1.71

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Juan Pablo II College-0.02on par

Atletico Grau+0.07on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juan Pablo II College ↓

Atletico Grau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Juan Pablo II College or draw

81%

Juan Pablo II College or Atletico Grau

76%

Draw or Atletico Grau

43%

Winning margin

Juan Pablo II College wins by 2+

32%

Atletico Grau wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Juan Pablo II College 1+ goals

81%

Juan Pablo II College 2+ goals

50%

Juan Pablo II College 3+ goals

24%

Atletico Grau 1+ goals

57%

Atletico Grau 2+ goals

21%

Atletico Grau 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Juan Pablo II College (draw refunded)

75%

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juan Pablo II College at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.85 · 8 matches

Atletico Grau away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.71 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juan Pablo II College attack 1.65 + Atletico Grau defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.68

Atletico Grau attack 0.84 + Juan Pablo II College defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Juan Pablo II College scores more

57%

level

24%

Atletico Grau scores more

19%

Juan Pablo II College at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Juan Pablo II College will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Tizon

Juan Pablo II College · M

8.7

Match Events

4'

Cristhian TizónGoal cancelled

16'

Elsar Rodas

39'

M. AffonsoPenalty

43'

Jeremy Rostaing

43'

C. Tizon↳ M. Affonso

46'

D. Franco← E. Rodas

46'

B. Garcia← J. Rostaing

46'

J. Garro← P. de la Cruz

46'

C. Olivares← T. Sandoval

56'

N. Bandiera↳ R. Ruidiaz

66'

R. Fernandez← R. Aliaga

66'

E. Villar← M. Affonso

67'

R. Vilca← R. Guarderas

68'

C. Tizon↳ J. Vega

70'

Cristhian TizónGoal confirmed

73'

C. Ramirez← J. Vega

74'

J. Soto← A. Rojas

74'

M. Rasmussen← C. Tizon

84'

Christian Flores

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuanAtletico

Overview

30%Possession70%

9Total Shots9

3Corners3

8Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots9

5On Target2

3Off Target1

1Blocked6

8Inside Box8

1Outside Box1

Passing

30%Possession70%

210Total Passes494

146Accurate Passes424

70%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0