Juan Pablo II College 1–2 Alianza Lima

Juan Pablo II College

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Alianza Lima

R. Alfani 21'

K. Quevedo 70', 45'

8/1/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 3Estadio Municipal de la Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Juan Pablo II College44%

×Draw28%

Alianza Lima28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juan Pablo II CollegeExpected goals in this matchAlianza Lima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.97

Juan Pablo II College

1.29

Alianza Lima

0.97

Juan Pablo II College creates 33% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 17 away

1.60

creates per match

1.07

0.86

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Juan Pablo II College

1.60

Alianza Lima

1.07

allows per match

Juan Pablo II College

0.86

Alianza Lima

0.98

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Juan Pablo II College-0.04on par

Alianza Lima-0.13scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juan Pablo II College ↓

Alianza Lima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Juan Pablo II College or draw

72%

Juan Pablo II College or Alianza Lima

72%

Draw or Alianza Lima

56%

Winning margin

Juan Pablo II College wins by 2+

20%

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Juan Pablo II College 1+ goals

72%

Juan Pablo II College 2+ goals

37%

Juan Pablo II College 3+ goals

14%

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

62%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

25%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Juan Pablo II College (draw refunded)

61%

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juan Pablo II College at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.86 · 9 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juan Pablo II College attack 1.60 + Alianza Lima defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.29

Alianza Lima attack 1.07 + Juan Pablo II College defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Juan Pablo II College scores more

44%

level

28%

Alianza Lima scores more

28%

Juan Pablo II College at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Juan Pablo II College will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

K. Quevedo

Alianza Lima · M

8.9

Match Events

18'

Jorge Toledo

21'

R. Alfani↳ C. Tizon

45'

K. Quevedo↳ P. Ceppelini

47'

Alessandro Burlamaqui

70'

K. Quevedo↳ H. Barcos

74'

Kevin QuevedoGoal confirmed

75'

A. Rojas← M. Affonso

75'

J. Vega← C. Ramirez

75'

M. Peralta← R. Fernandez

84'

M. Succar← K. Quevedo

88'

J. Archimbaud← P. Ceppelini

88'

J. Castillo← A. Burlamaqui

90+7'

Cristhian Tizón

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JuanAlianza

Overview

35%Possession65%

13Total Shots17

1.52Expected Goals (xG)1.57

2Corners10

6Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots17

5On Target7

6Off Target6

2Blocked4

9Inside Box11

4Outside Box6

Passing

35%Possession65%

260Total Passes462

146Accurate Passes355

56%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

6Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0