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Juan Aurich vs Serrato Pacasmayo — Segunda División 2018

Juan Aurich
Juan Aurich
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Serrato Pacasmayo
Serrato Pacasmayo
4/8/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 1Estadio de la Juventud (Chongoyape)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Juan Aurich82%
×Draw11%
Serrato Pacasmayo7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juan Aurich
3.32
Serrato Pacasmayo
0.89

Juan Aurich creates 273% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 14 away

creates per match

Juan Aurich
1.64
Serrato Pacasmayo
0.79

allows per match

Juan Aurich
0.99
Serrato Pacasmayo
5.00

finishing

Juan Aurich+0.00on par
Serrato Pacasmayo+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juan Aurich ↓

Serrato Pacasmayo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Juan Aurich or draw
93%
Juan Aurich or Serrato Pacasmayo
89%
Draw or Serrato Pacasmayo
18%

Winning margin

Juan Aurich wins by 2+
65%
Serrato Pacasmayo wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Juan Aurich 1+ goals
96%
Juan Aurich 2+ goals
84%
Juan Aurich 3+ goals
62%
Serrato Pacasmayo 1+ goals
59%
Serrato Pacasmayo 2+ goals
22%
Serrato Pacasmayo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Juan Aurich (draw refunded)
92%
Serrato Pacasmayo (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juan Aurich at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.99 · 70 matches

Serrato Pacasmayo away — creates 0.79, concedes 5.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juan Aurich attack 1.64 + Serrato Pacasmayo defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.32

Serrato Pacasmayo attack 0.79 + Juan Aurich defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Juan Aurich scores more
82%
level
11%
Serrato Pacasmayo scores more
7%

Juan Aurich at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Juan Aurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Juan Aurich 1–0 Serrato Pacasmayo

Juan Aurich beat Serrato Pacasmayo 1-0 in Segunda División on April 8, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio de la Juventud (Chongoyape).