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Juan Aurich vs San Marcos — Segunda División 2018

Juan Aurich
Juan Aurich
CANC
00:00
San Marcos
San Marcos
7/7/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Juan Aurich57%
×Draw24%
San Marcos20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juan Aurich
1.73
San Marcos
0.91

Juan Aurich creates 90% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 22 away

creates per match

Juan Aurich
1.64
San Marcos
0.82

allows per match

Juan Aurich
0.99
San Marcos
1.82

finishing

Juan Aurich+0.00on par
San Marcos+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juan Aurich ↓

San Marcos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Juan Aurich or draw
80%
Juan Aurich or San Marcos
76%
Draw or San Marcos
43%

Winning margin

Juan Aurich wins by 2+
32%
San Marcos wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Juan Aurich 1+ goals
82%
Juan Aurich 2+ goals
52%
Juan Aurich 3+ goals
25%
San Marcos 1+ goals
60%
San Marcos 2+ goals
23%
San Marcos 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Juan Aurich (draw refunded)
74%
San Marcos (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juan Aurich at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.99 · 70 matches

San Marcos away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juan Aurich attack 1.64 + San Marcos defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.73

San Marcos attack 0.82 + Juan Aurich defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Juan Aurich scores more
57%
level
24%
San Marcos scores more
20%

Juan Aurich at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Juan Aurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Juan Aurich host San Marcos

July 7, 2024: Juan Aurich take on San Marcos in Segunda División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.