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Juan Aurich vs LOS Caimanes — Segunda División 2018

Juan Aurich
Juan Aurich
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
LOS Caimanes
LOS Caimanes
10/20/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 19Estadio César Flores Marigorda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Juan Aurich65%
×Draw19%
LOS Caimanes16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juan Aurich
2.30
LOS Caimanes
1.07

Juan Aurich creates 115% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 25 away

creates per match

Juan Aurich
1.64
LOS Caimanes
1.16

allows per match

Juan Aurich
0.99
LOS Caimanes
2.96

finishing

Juan Aurich+0.00on par
LOS Caimanes+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juan Aurich ↓

LOS Caimanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Juan Aurich or draw
84%
Juan Aurich or LOS Caimanes
81%
Draw or LOS Caimanes
35%

Winning margin

Juan Aurich wins by 2+
42%
LOS Caimanes wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Juan Aurich 1+ goals
90%
Juan Aurich 2+ goals
67%
Juan Aurich 3+ goals
40%
LOS Caimanes 1+ goals
66%
LOS Caimanes 2+ goals
29%
LOS Caimanes 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Juan Aurich (draw refunded)
80%
LOS Caimanes (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juan Aurich at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.99 · 70 matches

LOS Caimanes away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juan Aurich attack 1.64 + LOS Caimanes defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.30

LOS Caimanes attack 1.16 + Juan Aurich defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Juan Aurich scores more
65%
level
19%
LOS Caimanes scores more
16%

Juan Aurich at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Juan Aurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juan Aurich vs LOS Caimanes

Juan Aurich beat LOS Caimanes 3-1 in Segunda División on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio César Flores Marigorda in Lambayeque.