Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Juan Aurich vs Ayacucho FC — Segunda División 2018

Juan Aurich
Juan Aurich
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ayacucho FC
Ayacucho FC
6/12/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 10Estadio Carlos Samamé Cáceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Juan Aurich50%
×Draw24%
Ayacucho FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Juan Aurich
1.75
Ayacucho FC
1.22

Juan Aurich creates 43% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 29 away

creates per match

Juan Aurich
1.64
Ayacucho FC
1.45

allows per match

Juan Aurich
0.99
Ayacucho FC
1.86

finishing

Juan Aurich+0.00on par
Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juan Aurich ↓

Ayacucho FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Juan Aurich or draw
73%
Juan Aurich or Ayacucho FC
76%
Draw or Ayacucho FC
50%

Winning margin

Juan Aurich wins by 2+
27%
Ayacucho FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Juan Aurich 1+ goals
83%
Juan Aurich 2+ goals
52%
Juan Aurich 3+ goals
25%
Ayacucho FC 1+ goals
70%
Ayacucho FC 2+ goals
34%
Ayacucho FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Juan Aurich (draw refunded)
65%
Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juan Aurich at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.99 · 70 matches

Ayacucho FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.86 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juan Aurich attack 1.64 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.75

Ayacucho FC attack 1.45 + Juan Aurich defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Juan Aurich scores more
50%
level
24%
Ayacucho FC scores more
27%

Juan Aurich at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Juan Aurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Juan Aurich vs Ayacucho FC

Juan Aurich and Ayacucho FC drew 1-1 in Segunda División on June 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Samamé Cáceres in Ferreñafe.