Juan Aurich 2–0 Atletico Grau: Result & Stats

Juan Aurich

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico Grau

12/1/2019

Segunda División · Play-offs - 2nd RoundEstadio Mansiche

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Juan Aurich52%

×Draw23%

Atletico Grau25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Juan AurichExpected goals in this matchAtletico Grau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.17

Juan Aurich

1.78

Atletico Grau

1.17

Juan Aurich creates 52% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 40 away

1.64

creates per match

1.35

0.99

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Juan Aurich

1.64

Atletico Grau

1.35

allows per match

Juan Aurich

0.99

Atletico Grau

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Juan Aurich+0.00on par

Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Juan Aurich ↓

Atletico Grau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Juan Aurich or draw

75%

Juan Aurich or Atletico Grau

77%

Draw or Atletico Grau

48%

Winning margin

Juan Aurich wins by 2+

28%

Atletico Grau wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Juan Aurich 1+ goals

83%

Juan Aurich 2+ goals

53%

Juan Aurich 3+ goals

26%

Atletico Grau 1+ goals

69%

Atletico Grau 2+ goals

33%

Atletico Grau 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Juan Aurich (draw refunded)

67%

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Juan Aurich at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.99 · 70 matches

Atletico Grau away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.93 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Juan Aurich attack 1.64 + Atletico Grau defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.78

Atletico Grau attack 1.35 + Juan Aurich defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Juan Aurich scores more

52%

level

23%

Atletico Grau scores more

25%

Juan Aurich at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Juan Aurich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff