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JSP vs Hodio — Championnat National 2019

JSP
JSP
FT
1 – 1
Hodio
Hodio
3/22/2026Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

JSP40%
×Draw32%
Hodio28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSP
1.05
Hodio
0.81

JSP creates 30% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 93 away

creates per match

JSP
1.13
Hodio
0.85

allows per match

JSP
0.78
Hodio
0.98

finishing

JSP+0.00on par
Hodio+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSP ↓

Hodio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

JSP or draw
72%
JSP or Hodio
68%
Draw or Hodio
60%

Winning margin

JSP wins by 2+
16%
Hodio wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

JSP 1+ goals
65%
JSP 2+ goals
28%
JSP 3+ goals
9%
Hodio 1+ goals
56%
Hodio 2+ goals
19%
Hodio 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

JSP (draw refunded)
59%
Hodio (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSP at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.78 · 111 matches

Hodio away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.98 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSP attack 1.13 + Hodio defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.05

Hodio attack 0.85 + JSP defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

JSP scores more
40%
level
32%
Hodio scores more
28%

JSP at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "JSP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JSP vs Hodio

JSP and Hodio drew 1-1 in Championnat National on March 22, 2026.