JSP 2–0 Etoile Filante: Result & Stats

JSP

FT

2 – 0

Etoile Filante

5/11/2025

Championnat National · Group B - 30Stade Jean-Pierre Gascon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

JSP50%

×Draw30%

Etoile Filante20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JSPExpected goals in this matchEtoile Filante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.65

JSP

1.22

Etoile Filante

0.65

JSP creates 88% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 29 away

1.13

creates per match

0.52

0.78

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

JSP

1.13

Etoile Filante

0.52

allows per match

JSP

0.78

Etoile Filante

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JSP+0.00on par

Etoile Filante+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSP ↓

Etoile Filante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

JSP or draw

80%

JSP or Etoile Filante

70%

Draw or Etoile Filante

50%

Winning margin

JSP wins by 2+

23%

Etoile Filante wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

JSP 1+ goals

70%

JSP 2+ goals

34%

JSP 3+ goals

12%

Etoile Filante 1+ goals

48%

Etoile Filante 2+ goals

14%

Etoile Filante 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

JSP (draw refunded)

72%

Etoile Filante (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSP at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.78 · 111 matches

Etoile Filante away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSP attack 1.13 + Etoile Filante defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Etoile Filante attack 0.52 + JSP defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

JSP scores more

50%

level

30%

Etoile Filante scores more

20%

JSP at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "JSP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff