Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

JSO vs Etoile Filante — Championnat National 2019

JSO
JSO
CANC
00:00
Etoile Filante
Etoile Filante
5/31/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group B - 33

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

JSO52%
×Draw30%
Etoile Filante18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSO
1.27
Etoile Filante
0.63

JSO creates 102% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 29 away

creates per match

JSO
1.24
Etoile Filante
0.52

allows per match

JSO
0.74
Etoile Filante
1.31

finishing

JSO+0.00on par
Etoile Filante+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSO ↓

Etoile Filante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

JSO or draw
82%
JSO or Etoile Filante
70%
Draw or Etoile Filante
48%

Winning margin

JSO wins by 2+
24%
Etoile Filante wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

JSO 1+ goals
72%
JSO 2+ goals
36%
JSO 3+ goals
14%
Etoile Filante 1+ goals
47%
Etoile Filante 2+ goals
13%
Etoile Filante 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

JSO (draw refunded)
74%
Etoile Filante (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSO at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

Etoile Filante away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSO attack 1.24 + Etoile Filante defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Etoile Filante attack 0.52 + JSO defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

JSO scores more
52%
level
30%
Etoile Filante scores more
18%

JSO at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "JSO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: JSO host Etoile Filante

May 31, 2025: JSO take on Etoile Filante in Championnat National. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.