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JSO vs ASVO — Championnat National 2019

JSO
JSO
CANC
00:00
ASVO
ASVO
5/2/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group B - 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

JSO40%
×Draw32%
ASVO28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSO
1.04
ASVO
0.81

JSO creates 28% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 109 away

creates per match

JSO
1.24
ASVO
0.89

allows per match

JSO
0.74
ASVO
0.85

finishing

JSO+0.00on par
ASVO+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSO ↓

ASVO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

JSO or draw
72%
JSO or ASVO
68%
Draw or ASVO
60%

Winning margin

JSO wins by 2+
16%
ASVO wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

JSO 1+ goals
65%
JSO 2+ goals
28%
JSO 3+ goals
9%
ASVO 1+ goals
56%
ASVO 2+ goals
19%
ASVO 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

JSO (draw refunded)
59%
ASVO (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSO at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.74 · 34 matches

ASVO away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.85 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSO attack 1.24 + ASVO defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.04

ASVO attack 0.89 + JSO defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

JSO scores more
40%
level
32%
ASVO scores more
28%

JSO at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "JSO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: JSO host ASVO

May 2, 2025: JSO take on ASVO in Championnat National. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.