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JSM Skikda vs Olympique Medea — Ligue 1 2018

JSM Skikda
JSM Skikda
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Olympique Medea
Olympique Medea
11/21/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 15Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bechar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

JSM Skikda46%
×Draw28%
Olympique Medea26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSM Skikda
1.33
Olympique Medea
0.93

JSM Skikda creates 43% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 53 away

creates per match

JSM Skikda
1.19
Olympique Medea
0.68

allows per match

JSM Skikda
1.17
Olympique Medea
1.47

finishing

JSM Skikda+0.00on par
Olympique Medea+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSM Skikda ↓

Olympique Medea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

JSM Skikda or draw
74%
JSM Skikda or Olympique Medea
72%
Draw or Olympique Medea
54%

Winning margin

JSM Skikda wins by 2+
21%
Olympique Medea wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

JSM Skikda 1+ goals
74%
JSM Skikda 2+ goals
38%
JSM Skikda 3+ goals
15%
Olympique Medea 1+ goals
61%
Olympique Medea 2+ goals
24%
Olympique Medea 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

JSM Skikda (draw refunded)
64%
Olympique Medea (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSM Skikda at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.17 · 36 matches

Olympique Medea away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.47 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSM Skikda attack 1.19 + Olympique Medea defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.33

Olympique Medea attack 0.68 + JSM Skikda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

JSM Skikda scores more
46%
level
28%
Olympique Medea scores more
26%

JSM Skikda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "JSM Skikda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JSM Skikda 0 – 0 Olympique Medea

JSM Skikda and Olympique Medea drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on November 21, 2018.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bechar).