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JSM Skikda vs JSM Bejaia — League #187 2026

JSM Skikda
JSM Skikda
FT
2 – 1
JSM Bejaia
JSM Bejaia
2/22/2020League #187League #187 · Round 17Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

JSM Skikda50%
×Draw27%
JSM Bejaia23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSM Skikda
1.44
JSM Bejaia
0.88

JSM Skikda creates 64% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 29 away

creates per match

JSM Skikda
1.33
JSM Bejaia
0.76

allows per match

JSM Skikda
1.00
JSM Bejaia
1.55

finishing

JSM Skikda+0.00on par
JSM Bejaia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSM Skikda ↓

JSM Bejaia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

JSM Skikda or draw
77%
JSM Skikda or JSM Bejaia
73%
Draw or JSM Bejaia
50%

Winning margin

JSM Skikda wins by 2+
25%
JSM Bejaia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

JSM Skikda 1+ goals
76%
JSM Skikda 2+ goals
42%
JSM Skikda 3+ goals
18%
JSM Bejaia 1+ goals
59%
JSM Bejaia 2+ goals
22%
JSM Bejaia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

JSM Skikda (draw refunded)
69%
JSM Bejaia (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSM Skikda at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

JSM Bejaia away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.55 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSM Skikda attack 1.33 + JSM Bejaia defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.44

JSM Bejaia attack 0.76 + JSM Skikda defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

JSM Skikda scores more
50%
level
27%
JSM Bejaia scores more
23%

JSM Skikda at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "JSM Skikda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JSM Skikda vs JSM Bejaia

JSM Skikda beat JSM Bejaia 2-1 in League #187 on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 in Skikda.