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JSM Skikda vs CS Constantine — Ligue 1 2018

JSM Skikda
JSM Skikda
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CS Constantine
CS Constantine
Z. Hammar 90+4'
I. Farhi 85', 66'
Dylan Bahamboula 89'
4/27/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bechar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

JSM Skikda36%
×Draw29%
CS Constantine34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSM Skikda
1.12
CS Constantine
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 124 away

creates per match

JSM Skikda
1.12
CS Constantine
0.96

allows per match

JSM Skikda
1.21
CS Constantine
1.12

finishing

JSM Skikda+0.00on par
CS Constantine+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSM Skikda ↓

CS Constantine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

JSM Skikda or draw
66%
JSM Skikda or CS Constantine
71%
Draw or CS Constantine
64%

Winning margin

JSM Skikda wins by 2+
15%
CS Constantine wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

JSM Skikda 1+ goals
67%
JSM Skikda 2+ goals
31%
JSM Skikda 3+ goals
10%
CS Constantine 1+ goals
66%
CS Constantine 2+ goals
29%
CS Constantine 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

JSM Skikda (draw refunded)
51%
CS Constantine (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSM Skikda at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

CS Constantine away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.12 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSM Skikda attack 1.12 + CS Constantine defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

CS Constantine attack 0.96 + JSM Skikda defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

JSM Skikda scores more
36%
level
29%
CS Constantine scores more
34%

JSM Skikda at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "JSM Skikda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'
I. Farhi
85'
I. Farhi
89'
Dylan Bahamboula
90+4'
Z. Hammar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: JSM Skikda 3–1 CS Constantine

JSM Skikda beat CS Constantine 3-1 in Ligue 1 on April 27, 2019.

Goals: I. Farhi (66', 85'), Dylan Bahamboula (89'), Z. Hammar (90+4').

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bechar).