JSM Bejaia 1–0 US Chaouia: Result & Stats

JSM Bejaia

FT

1 – 0

US Chaouia

12/26/2015

League #187 · Round 15Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

JSM Bejaia53%

×Draw28%

US Chaouia19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JSM BejaiaExpected goals in this matchUS Chaouia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.70

JSM Bejaia

1.36

US Chaouia

0.70

JSM Bejaia creates 94% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 5 away

1.32

creates per match

0.60

0.79

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

JSM Bejaia

1.32

US Chaouia

0.60

allows per match

JSM Bejaia

0.79

US Chaouia

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JSM Bejaia+0.00on par

US Chaouia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSM Bejaia ↓

US Chaouia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

JSM Bejaia or draw

81%

JSM Bejaia or US Chaouia

72%

Draw or US Chaouia

47%

Winning margin

JSM Bejaia wins by 2+

26%

US Chaouia wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

JSM Bejaia 1+ goals

74%

JSM Bejaia 2+ goals

39%

JSM Bejaia 3+ goals

16%

US Chaouia 1+ goals

50%

US Chaouia 2+ goals

16%

US Chaouia 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

JSM Bejaia (draw refunded)

73%

US Chaouia (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSM Bejaia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

US Chaouia away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSM Bejaia attack 1.32 + US Chaouia defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

US Chaouia attack 0.60 + JSM Bejaia defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

JSM Bejaia scores more

53%

level

28%

US Chaouia scores more

19%

JSM Bejaia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "JSM Bejaia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff