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JSM Bejaia vs El Eulma — League #187 2026

JSM Bejaia
JSM Bejaia
FT
0 – 0
El Eulma
El Eulma
5/4/2019League #187League #187 · Round 30Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine (Béjaïa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

JSM Bejaia45%
×Draw35%
El Eulma20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSM Bejaia
1.00
El Eulma
0.56

JSM Bejaia creates 79% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 3 away

creates per match

JSM Bejaia
1.32
El Eulma
0.33

allows per match

JSM Bejaia
0.79
El Eulma
0.67

finishing

JSM Bejaia+0.00on par
El Eulma+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSM Bejaia ↓

El Eulma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–112%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
21%79%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

JSM Bejaia or draw
80%
JSM Bejaia or El Eulma
65%
Draw or El Eulma
55%

Winning margin

JSM Bejaia wins by 2+
18%
El Eulma wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

JSM Bejaia 1+ goals
63%
JSM Bejaia 2+ goals
26%
JSM Bejaia 3+ goals
8%
El Eulma 1+ goals
43%
El Eulma 2+ goals
11%
El Eulma 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

JSM Bejaia (draw refunded)
69%
El Eulma (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSM Bejaia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

El Eulma away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSM Bejaia attack 1.32 + El Eulma defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

El Eulma attack 0.33 + JSM Bejaia defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

JSM Bejaia scores more
45%
level
35%
El Eulma scores more
20%

JSM Bejaia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "JSM Bejaia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

JSM
El

JSM Bejaia 0 – 0 El Eulma

JSM Bejaia and El Eulma drew 0-0 in League #187 on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Stade de l'Unité Maghrébine (Béjaïa).