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JSK vs RCK — Ligue 1 2019

JSK
JSK
FT
2 – 0
RCK
RCK
10/26/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

JSK51%
×Draw28%
RCK21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSK
1.35
RCK
0.75

JSK creates 80% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 34 away

creates per match

JSK
1.15
RCK
0.65

allows per match

JSK
0.85
RCK
1.56

finishing

JSK+0.00on par
RCK+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSK ↓

RCK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

JSK or draw
79%
JSK or RCK
72%
Draw or RCK
49%

Winning margin

JSK wins by 2+
25%
RCK wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

JSK 1+ goals
74%
JSK 2+ goals
39%
JSK 3+ goals
15%
RCK 1+ goals
53%
RCK 2+ goals
17%
RCK 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

JSK (draw refunded)
71%
RCK (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSK at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 85 matches

RCK away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSK attack 1.15 + RCK defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.35

RCK attack 0.65 + JSK defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

JSK scores more
51%
level
28%
RCK scores more
21%

JSK at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "JSK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: JSK 2–0 RCK

JSK beat RCK 2-0 in Ligue 1 on October 26, 2021.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.