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JSK vs Panda B5 — Ligue 1 2019

JSK
JSK
FT
0 – 1
Panda B5
Panda B5
12/28/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 11Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

JSK60%
×Draw25%
Panda B515%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSK
1.56
Panda B5
0.63

JSK creates 148% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 52 away

creates per match

JSK
1.15
Panda B5
0.40

allows per match

JSK
0.85
Panda B5
1.98

finishing

JSK+0.00on par
Panda B5+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSK ↓

Panda B5 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

JSK or draw
85%
JSK or Panda B5
75%
Draw or Panda B5
40%

Winning margin

JSK wins by 2+
32%
Panda B5 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

JSK 1+ goals
79%
JSK 2+ goals
46%
JSK 3+ goals
21%
Panda B5 1+ goals
47%
Panda B5 2+ goals
13%
Panda B5 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

JSK (draw refunded)
80%
Panda B5 (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSK at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 85 matches

Panda B5 away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSK attack 1.15 + Panda B5 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.56

Panda B5 attack 0.40 + JSK defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

JSK scores more
60%
level
25%
Panda B5 scores more
15%

JSK at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "JSK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JSK vs Panda B5

Panda B5 beat JSK 1-0 in Ligue 1 on December 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.